Show Notes
Ah, the 18.6-year property cycle, super interesting concept for those in the property investment game!
Let’s break it down.
Imagine property cycle as the hour hand of a clock, taking 18.6 hours (years) to complete a full rotation. Each hour represents a different phase of the market’s rise and fall.
Here’s how it typically plays out:
- Recovery Phase (Years 1-7): After a crash, things start off slowly. Prices are low, and it’s a buyer’s market. Investors who jump in here are the brave souls. Think 2009!
- Explosive Phase (Years 7-14):This is when things heat up. Prices start rising faster, often fueled by easy credit and a booming economy. Think our crazy COVID pump!
- Recession (Year 14): Just like after a big party, there’s a hangover. Around year 14, there’s often a minor downturn. It’s like a warning bell, but it’s short-lived and waiting for a real pump to tear through. Think…..right now!
- Peak Phase (Years 14-18): After the little recession dip, the market climbs again, reaching dizzying heights. This is when things can get risky. Prices are sky-high, and there’s a lot of speculation……think early 2000s with the dotcom bust
- Crash (Year 18): What goes up must come down. Around year 18, the bubble bursts. Prices plummet, often due to factors like an economic downturn, over supply and a realisation we overspent. It’s a tough time for many, but savvy investors know that it’s also the groundwork for the next recovery phase.
I bet you’re keen as mustard to understand this concecpt futher, even saying “Surely, we’re at the peak?”.
Well, on Aus Property Investors, we’re lucky to interview one of the worlds leading experts on the topic, a man that wrote the book on the topic Akhil Patel.
Join us to unpack the gold together so we all know how to attack the coming boom and protect our downside.
Topics we’ll be talking about include:
- The 18.6 year cycle explained! This one is bound to be juicy and actionable
- How to Profit from understanding The 18.6 Year Property Cycle
- Where are we in the cycle & What are some signs to look out for that the market is “changing”
- A live Q & A session – we’ll aim to answer as many as we can.
Episode Highlights
01:13 Akhil Patel: Background & Expertise
03:39 Explaining the 18-Year Property Cycle to Beginners
08:59 Structure of Economies and Planned Development
12:01 Impact of COVID-19 on Property Cycle
21:50 Akhil’s thought on commercial property
24:56 Stylised diagram of the real estate cycle
28:04 Synchronization of Economic Cycles
31:43 Current Position in the Cycle
35:40 Growth in Property Market and Potential Challenges
39:18 Impact of Technological Advancements on Economic Cycles
43:32 Boom-Bust Cycles and Government Intervention
51:22 Investing in Bali and Real Estate Market in Perth
52:58 Timing the Market and Holding Assets
54:53 What to Look Out for When Booming
57:08 Interest Rates and Property Market
1:01:44 Immigration Forecasts and Housing Market
1:06:52 Learn more from Akhil
Episode Resources
Connect with Akhil Patel: https://propertysharemarketeconomics….
Connect Joe Tucker: https://propertyprinciples.com.au/
Join Aus Property Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/Auspr…
Join the Newsletter: https://propertyinvesting.substack.com/
Property Course: https://levelupproperty.com.au/
SUBSCRIBE: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC2Hq…
Other Guests On Our Lives
Chris Gray, Amanda Farmer, Steve Palise, Nathan Birch, Todd Sloan, Cate Bakos, Mike Mortlock, Lloyd Edge, Karen Baldwin, Rob Flux, Kent Lardner, Charley Valher, Bernadette Janson, Pete Wargent, Melinda Jennison, Bushy Martin, Michelle Lewis, Peter Koulizos, Jane Slack-Smith, Joe Tucker, Jordan De Jong, Scott Aggett, Belinda Smith, Jef Miles and more.
